ANBAR JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES

Abstract

The most important objective of quantitative economic studies is to predict in economic variables values in order to plan for production and import policies in Iraq . Many techniques could be used to predict economic variables . In this study ARIMA model was used This model is a mixture of autoregressive technique and moving average for time series data in order to predict in wheat supply for Iraq . This model is also characterized by high accuracy in analyzing time series data . Time series data for wheat acreage was used for the period (1961-2007) . The suitable model was identified and it was ARIMA (2,1,0) model . This model predicted the wheat acreage until 2015 , and it satisfied all statistical and predictive power tests.